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Saturday 26 May 2018

2019 Elections in Nigeria and the plague of mistake of destiny-'Election Rigging

The Plan to rig 2019 elections in Nigeria- "Blame Government not INEC, if 2019 Polls are not credible"- Dr Bukola Saraki, Nigeria's Senate President. Photo: Uche Okeke

As expected, It's becoming very obvious that there will never be credible elections- free and fair elections in Nigeria come 2019;  given the desperation of the government to consolidate their grip on power.  One of the crude strategies is to 'demonise' political opponents. We have witnessed increasing witch-hunting of strong opposition members using the anti-graft agency-EFCC,  INEC's inability to accept responsibility on under-aged voters in some states,etc.  As we are aware, the National Assembly is already rendered impotent, we dare not talk about the Judiciary- rule of law is also now impotent, violent repression of civil liberties, ethnic minorities, killings, mass propaganda, fake news, authoritarian thugs-e-rats, etc. Governor Yesom Wike of  Rivers State has recently raised alarm about assasination plans on his life. If such allegation can come from a sitting Governor, then all is not safe. Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State has also raised alarm alleging plot to 'Pre-load smart cards, defranchise about 50% of the voters in his state'. The Government seems very confident it's policies will win them elections despite widespread opposition from Nigerians, due to 'economic insecurity and hardship'.The Christian Association of Nigeria has cautioned against re-election of the current leadership due to several killings in various states including two Catholic Priests and their parishoners. If the Christians who are more than half of the population vote against the leadership it would definitely be very difficult to win the elections. However, leading APC Governors including Mallam El-Rufai of Kaduna State insists that the ruling APC government has kept their 'campaign promises' while the Government Information minister Mr Lai Mohammed; was cocksure that the ruling APC party won't lose the 2019 polls. Government control of election institutions is one major reason for insistence on winning the next election despite the realities on the ground- weakend party, imminent mass defection, mass rejection,etc. The events of a  recent recall election in Kogi state sends a strong signal to what should be expected at the polls come 2019. Meanwhile the ruling APC party doesn't seem very sure that their candidates will participate in future election debates citing constitutional flaws, despite the vital importance of such a democratic practice. The party wants to implement the burning issue of restructuring after the next election in 2019. These adds to their already dented image as trust is now eroded. Acording to Professor Nic Cheeseman; Professor of Democracy at the University of Birmingham; "Elections are often the frontlines in a global battle for democracy. Dictators, despots, and counterfeit democrats hold elections to legitimize their regime, but then rig them to ensure that they maintain their iron grip on power-"[How to rig election, LSE, 01 May 2018]. Electionis one of the most crucial part of the democratic success for democracy to be translated into 'sound and stable' government. Rigging the next election would mean full blown dictatorship with its unending implications on the polity-Absolutism, loss of liberty and freedom, selective justice, loss of seperation of powers, violent repression, killings, discrimination, division and destruction, mass corruption, lack of transparency and accountability, stagnation, instability, violence, etc. Our current experience is enough to make everyone to think twice. In the words of Professor Nic Cheeseman some of the crude tactis deployed by dictators and anti-democrats for election rigging include: "Vote buying, Violent repression, Assasinating rivals, Gerrymandeing, Voter Suppression, Ballot box stuffing, the digital frontier of hacking and disinformation campaigns". These are now evident in this dispensation. The unanswered question now is how do we ensure that our votes count come 2015 elections? What will happen if the votes don't count. The opposition PDP says the major issue now is how to get the President to concede defeat in 2019, due to his unpopularity.  According to Amanda Taub: "Today the most common way for a democracy to collapse is through the actions of an elected incumbent , not a coup or a revolution. Once in power, unscrupulous leaders can sometimes manipulate the political enviroment to their own benefit, making it more likely that they will be victorious in future contests. By winning those elections, they gain the stamp of democratic legitimacy-even for actions that ultimately undermine democratic norms"-[How Autocrats Triumph in Democratic Countries; The New York Times, April 18 2017].

 Read this blog regularly as we continue to search for the best answers to keep ordinary people well informed and help drive a new society that is just and fair.

Uche Okeke is a Social Entrepreneur.

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