Electoral farce- things keep getting worse for African Colossus By Natale Labia

"Essentially, Nigeria is at risk of falling apart. Africa and the world needs a Nigeria that works for it's voters and youths. If managed well, it remains a country with enormous potential and resources. Sadly, it is unlikely that this recent farce of an election will provide that the world will be forced to take notice when Nigeria collapses"- Natale Labia, Partner and Chief economist of a global investment firm. Photo: Google .

Nigeria matters. While it is unlikely that much of the world paid attention to the results of its presidential election last week, it should have. Nigeria is Africa's largest country and largest democracy. With a population of 216 million, almost one in five Africans is Nigerian, and most of them are underage of 30. It is also growing extraordinarily fast; according to the UN, at current rates Nigeria will overtake the US to be the world's third-largest country by 2050 and China by 2100. 

However, even for a country with a history of quasi-omnipresent disorder, Nigeria faces an unprecedented set of challenges. Inflation is at a record 22% and at least one in three Nigerians is jobless. Despite the fast-growing population, there has been an almost complete absence of economic growth for a decade, resulting in millions of Nigerians abandoning their homeland. 

 Although blessed with abundant oil and gas reserves, Nigeria endures constant power outages and fuel shortages. Insecurity and crime are rife, and there are atleast two major Islamist insurgencies in the north, a separatist conflict in the southeast and several sectarian disputes across the country. Kidnapping is rife.

Finally, a botched attempt to replace high-domination currency notes less than a month before the general election descended into chaos, with long lines of  people forming outside cash machines and fights breaking out inside banks as customers demanded access to their own money. 

Essentially, Nigeria is at risk of falling apart. More immediately, though, are the questions of the election itself. what Nigeria needed above all was a transparent and fair contest to ensure the basic promise of democracy is alive and well. Sadly, that is far from what transpired. Ostensibly won by the former governor and self-styled godfather of Lagos, the wealthy political manoeuvering Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress, the election was, at the very least, badly mismanaged. Opposition parties have declared it a sham. 

Nigeria's Independent National Election Commission clearly failed to deliver. Voting on a new electronic ballot system started late in many districts, depriving millions of the right to vote. The system uploading results then failed, raising suspicions of tampering, while there are widespread reports of intimidation in polling stations. Turnout was pitifully low, at 27%, which the opposition maintains was due to fear. 

It was not meant to happen like this. After serving his maximum of two terms, former president Muhammadu Buhari stated he was stepping down to make way for a fresh face at the helm of this West African colossus, and for the first time in Nigeria's fourth republi, there was a third entrant.

Challenging the ageing and allegedly corrupt Tinubu and equally antediluvian Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party was an exciting new contestant; Peter Obi and his Labour Party.

Backed by many of Nigeria's urban and educated middle class, especially among the young, he had been tipped as the first serious challenger to the gerontocracy that has ruled the country since the 1998 demise of Sani Abacha's military junta. With Obi leading in the polls propir to the election, commentators called this the first genuine opportunity of a fresh start for Nigeria in decades.

Obi, who had based his campaign on mobilising younger voters disenchanted with the out-of -touch political elite, told reporters at a press conference on thursday that his Labour Party would explore all "legal and peaceful options to reclaim our mandate. We won the election and we'll prove it to Nigerians"

Second-placed Abubakar has also called for a re-run. A prolonged dispute risks tipping an already precarious status-quo into anarchy.

Even if the result stands and somehow reflects the broader will of the people, Tinubu faces one of the toughest jobs imaginable. First, he will need to stabilise the economy. Then, major reforms to the police and military are needed to reinstate security across the country, especially in those areas threatened by insurgencies and seccession. The toxic confluence of problems besetting Nigeria has not only been a handbrake on African economic growth, but it has destabilised the region and caused mass humanitarian and immigration crisis as far away as Europe and South Africa.

Africa, and the world, needs a Nigeria that works for its voters and youth. If managed well, it remains a country with enormous potential and resources. Sadly, it is unlikely that this recent farce of an election will provide that.

Source:  Daily Maverick

 

Stolen Elections in Nigeria, What can Be Done About It

 

"We are accountable to the people of this country and the people have accepted the BVAS as a game changer in our electoral process"- Festus Okoye, Nigeria INEC Commissioner for Information and Voter Education. Photo: Google Images.

The 2023 Presidential Election in Nigeria has generated a lot of controversy-'election fraud' . Millions of Nigerians especially young people who saw the 25 February 2023 Presidential election as an opportunity to reclaim the country from corruption ridden aged- oligarchs  who have brought the country to its knees, now believe that votes don't count  and seem to  have lost faith in the integrity of elections in Nigeria. They are simply looking up to the judiciary with the expectations that the right justice will be delivered. As it stands, nobody can predict the next possible move as the Presidential transition council concludes the inauguration of the new President-elect on the 29th of May 2023. 

According to Christina Bobb; "The country has become ever-more polarised, pitting those who believe the election was stolen versus those who are determined to cancel both the investigations and the doubters. But election integrity should not be a partisan issue. Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our republic while tainted elections are the hallmark of tyranny. If we fail to regain election integrity and the trust of American people, all of us, Democrat and Republican, liberal and conservative, are doomed to a dark  future"

Read The LEAD Project Foundation blog regularly as we follow events about the Presidential Election Tribunal in Nigeria to understand what truly happened in the 25 February 2023 Presidential elections and publish our findings  on what can be done to improve future elections. Also visit Election Rogues Gallery as we intend to identify convicted election offenders in Nigeria, individuals and organisations on global sanction lists. 

Uche Okeke is the Founder of The LEAD Project Foundation. He lives in London. 

Who Really Won The Presidential Election? by Emeka Ugwuonye

 

"The election was rigged with the connivance of INEC. What happened in the presidential election was not credible enough for me to objectively assess who won the election. My honest personal opinion is that either INEC would follow the law and properly count the votes or the election should be redone"-Emeka Ugwuonye ; Founder , Due Process Advocates (DPA). Photo: Google Images.

If I announce here that I'm on my way to Abuja, my detractors will shout. He is going to cheer Asiwaju on his inauguration. Well, I have a different mission. My views on the election and inauguration are pragmatic, I have to live in peace with things I can't change. And that is my advice to all. Otherwise, you live a life based on wishes.

 Since my critical analysis of the situation surrounding the presidential elections and the seemingly inevitability of Tinubu's inauguration , one important question people have asked me has been: who won the election? My answer to this question has been: "I don't know. The reason I do not know who the winner of the election is because INEC did not conduct a fair and free election, which could produce the result you are asking me for. The election was rigged with the connivance of INEC. What happened in the presidential election was not credible enough for me to objectively assess who won the election. My honest personal opinion is that either INEC would follow the law and properly count the votes or the election should be redone. 

What I wish has not happened, instead, INEC gave us a result and told us to go with it. That is not consistent with what I want or what I consider fair. The options are: (1) to enter the street and protest or (2) to stop INEC through the courts. This is where the reality sets in. I will not ask anyone to enter the streets because I have an idea what will happen. Secondly, I do not have confidence in the Nigeria judiciary to stop an incumbent president. Our judiciary is not independent enough for that. It can happen at the state level. Our courts have a number of times in the past removed an incumbent governor who got into the office through rigging. But our court has never done that with respect to presidential elections. I knew for certain that late President Yar'Adua did not win his election. I knew how the incumbent bought the courts to declare that a rigged election was not rigged.  

The reality I kept hammering at is the fact that the situation in Nigeria today does not allow either  of the two options I mentioned above. Nigeria remains a country where the DSS arrested 7 senior judges in the middle of the night, and nothing happened. If judges could be arrested without consequence, how could you ever expect the courts to decide against a sitting president as to his right to remain in office or obligation to vacate. 

Does this mean I am saying that we should allow a rigged election to hold? No, I am only saying that you can only do what is feasible. You cannot pursue an impossibility just because you feel you must try something. Besides, I believe that Nigeria has continued to make progress, though at a snail pace, and with progress, the next election will be better than the last because the people have learnt from the past.

Anyway, just watch out to see if the Government will declare tomorrow a public holiday. Whether they do or not. I am sceptical about what the courts can do. Tomorrow is the last chance for the judiciary to make to stop the inauguration of Tinubu. After tomorrow, you must learn to live with it.

Was the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election Stolen?

 

Protesters vowed to shut down the country over what they described as daylight robbery by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in connivance with the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC ) to subvert the will of Nigerians in the just concluded 25 February 2023 Presidential Election. Photo: Sahara Reporters.

Elections in Nigeria have been very controversial since independence, however the 2023 Presidential Election widely expected to be a game changer due to electoral reforms allowing the use of electronic voting turned out to be a huge disappointment with allegations of fraud by the leading opposition candidates who have refused to concede but have approached the election tribunal seeking to nullify the outcome of the presidential elections. 

Today , there is widespread belief that 'future elections will not be conducted fairly and that the candidates taking office will not reflect the free choices made by eligible voters'.   Stolen elections mock democracy and development and creates the conditions for conflict and instability especially in fragile democracies. There are a lot of reasons to worry about stolen elections.  The 25  February 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election is a wake up call to do something about it.

What Constitutes a "stolen election"?

How can we spot a stolen election?

What are the consequences of a stolen election?

What can be done about it .

According to Dan Mclaughlin;  "in terms of evidence, there are three signs to look for that might show that an election's outcome was the result of fraud by voters or election officials" 

These include:

 1) Direct evidence of illegally counted or discounted votes.

2)Evidence of an unlawful process.

3) Anomalous results that make sense only if the election was fraudulent.

Perhaps, this could be a good place to start as we strive to help communicate what works so that we can have a democracy that works for everyone. Everyone wins if we can help maintain a just and free society. In the words of Steven F. Freeman and Joel Bleifuss; "Elections needed to convey a sense of fairness and finality if the fledging democracy was to survive,...and when we have a reason to doubt, when officials operate secretly under colour of law or behind the veil of untested technologies, when the results of a national election cannot be trusted to reflect the ballots cast, no obligation could be greater than that of a citizen to question the electoral process itself" . 

There is a saying that , "the people know a rotten sardine when they smell one"

The events of 25 February 2023 Presidential elections gave us such reason to doubt. 

Uche Okeke.

Persistence of Poverty and Stagnation in Nigeria; Why the Silence?

"Politicians love oil- selling it generates easy money for the government, much easier than taxing citizens who might demand services, democracy and good governance. They use the oil money to buy votes, lubricate patronage networks, silence rivals, fund a comfortable retirement abroad. In Nigeria oil accounts for roughly 90% of exports and two-thirds of government revenue. Sixty-five percent-65% of the government revenues go to servicing existing debts"- Economist

The curse of oil in Nigeria is a sad tragedy. A small group of violent people who are on a mission to grab more resources as they can by subjecting the rest of the population to unending servitude. Instead of the people who are disadvantaged to rebel; they just prefer to suffer quietly. In the words of Peter Lewis; "Nigeria has failed profoundly as a state, a nation and an economy", the time has come to settle the Nigeria idea. This is the sad reality of how the Unitary-Centralised Political System raped the country's resources and deprive states/regions capacity to deliver essential services to their own citizens. The truth is the population of these places are now worse of and are incapable of facing the challenges of the future. Read More: 

The LEAD Project Foundation: Nigeria: The Country We're In - 'Capture, Corrupti...

The LEAD Project Foundation: Nigeria: The Country We're In - 'Capture, Corrupti...: "Shockingly for a commonwealth country, Nigeria ranks 12th on the Open Doors World Watch List 2020 of countries in which Christians are...

Nigeria's Illusive Democracy

"While we look at the screens of our televisions and mobile phones, others with agendas have their fingers in the pockets of our democracy, on the steering wheel of our democracy, on the keys to our democracy, on the credit cards of our democracy"-Professor A.C. Grayling.

Citizens embrace democracy with reasonable expectations that it will deliver a better quality of life. However, when it fails to deliver these benefits, people lose faith in democracy. The truth is in Nigeria, people are deprived of a voice in the government of their lives so its hard to describe what is happening in Nigeria as a workable democracy. 

According to Professor A.C. Grayling; "the idea of democracy is that it is a political order in which government is chosen and given authority by the periodically, freely and fairly cast votes of the enfranchised members of the populace, who have a real choice as to whom to give their vote. A set of civil liberties is essential to the operation of democracy, such as freedom of expression, the right to assembly, and liberty in respect of political choices. 

The mechanisms by which the government is thereafter constrained in what it can do, are highly important" He concluded that three further intimately connected essentials-'the proper operation of the democracy, the quality of the electorate, and the quality of the elected' would close the gap between aspiration and nearest thing to the ideal that humanity can achieve in this sphere. Thus, "it is in the breakdown of these further essentials that the crisis of contemporary democracy consists". 

 My first attempt to investigate democracy crisis in Nigeria which i described as 'bribe and bullet' endorsed above explanations without any iota of doubt. Failing democracy in Nigeria is as a result of the great disconnect among the three essentials-the political system, the political actors and the people-'capture, corruption, coercion'. My focus will be a brief explanation of what has transpired from the return to civil rule in 1999 till date and what can be done to reclaim democracy in Nigeria and make it achieve its purpose of liberty and freedom as in the words of Professor A.C.Grayling; "worked out by some of the best minds in the history of our civilization"(P.11). 

*The Dubious Political System: Writing on NewYork Times; 'Lessons From Nigeria's Militarized Democratic Experiment' on October 9 2019, Professor Wole Soyinka has this to say about Nigeria's Political system ; "Nigeria's current Constitution, a parting gift from the military that ruled the nation for nearly four decades after its independence from Britain in 1960, was released to the public on May 29, 1999. The document was significant in one respect: Other than the conscripted drafting team, no one had previously set eyes on its contents. 

As Rotimi Williams, one of Nigeria's most revered legal minds, once declared, even the Constitution's preamble began with an ergregious lie, with that ritual attribution "We the People..." It is no surprise then that the Constitution bequeathed by the Nigerian military 20 years ago marked a total repudiation of the less-centralised federalist structure that was the driving principle, agreed to after tough negotiations, of prior constitutional conferences in Nigeria and Britain. Ironically, one of the proclaimed justifications for a counter-coup in July 1966 was the aim of reversing the centralization decrees that had gathered the security arms, civil service, judiciary and other state structures under one command". 

While Nigerian diarchy operates mostly in covert fashion, the military does not hesitate, when required, to declare openly where the real power lies", he concluded. The dubious constitution must be addressed by a constitutional settlement that has the will of the whole society. 

Similarly, Professor Akin Oyebode, a Constitutional law expert described Nigeria's Political System as "very dysfunctional, counter -productive. Assessing the nation's democracy since 1999, Professor Oyebode said ; "I think this is a work in progress. The question of the Nigerian political system ; it's problematic, it's an ongoing issue" He concluded that the country needs a new constitution to enable a proper and transparent democracy. He mentioned that he was among the over 400 delegates who attended the 2014 National Conference(CONFAB) organised by former President Goodluck Jonathan. According to him; "the question of the nature of the polity and what needed to be done to ameliorate its dysfunctionality resonated very loudly at the event, but nothing has yet to be done six years later.

 

He said ; "The CONFAB came up with over 600 resolutions, but nothing has been done to date to effectuate those recommendations which would have made the Nigerian polity a little bit easier to understand to enhance its functionality. If you don't want to touch the recommendations of the CONFAB, then you need another forum, not the National Assembly. The National Assembly is to make laws for the peace, order, and good governance of Nigeria; it is not a constituent assembly. It is neither the place nor the role, or function of the National Assembly to give us a constitution. The word restructuring might be problematic to some people but to most objective observers, the system we are operating is very dysfunctional and counterproductive". 

Furthermore; Dr Nina Nwodo, President General of Igbo Apex Organisation, Ohaneze Ndigbo reiterated the urgent need for a new constitution that can help grow democracy in Nigeria. In his own words; "our country is operating on an illegal constitution because the constitution lacks autochtony. We never made a constitution for Nigeria, the military gave it to the country. The composition of its legislative body was chosen by a parameter not known to anybody. They wrote a constitution and abandoned the agreement our forefathers had with the British government for a regional based government, in which every region had its own security, economic development and sovereignty over its natural resources and pay tax to the central government. 

Ninety percent of the heads of security personnel in the South-East are non-indigenes. And we know all over the world that local policing is the trend today. You have to know your local territory and speak the language to the police chief. Those people don't speak the language and are not from there. They look like those posted to superintend over the colonial arrangement. This situation is threatening the very fabric of our nation." He therefore stressed that Nigeria must restructure the country and have a constitution that is autochthonous. "A constitution that is made by the people and backed by a plebiscite voted by the people" . 

No doubt it would be very difficult to have a proper and transparent democracy in Nigeria without addressing the root cause of the problem. *The Political Actors-PDP vs APC: I described PDP vs APC political parties as 'putting a lipstick on a pig, its still a pig' ,whereas the PDP tried to solve the problem by changing the question rather than addressing the root cause of the problem, the APC was a 'Mistake of Destiny', a tragic story of the supreme power of politics to destroy collective life, economy and the society. 

Rule by angry people, wrong hands, human hands, very bad tyranny; division, ethnic discrimination, exploitation and domination, terror, and economic violence, seeking to use state power to impose a particular ideology on the rest of the society. According Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo; "No Nigerian State is Safe, Secure Again. Now, no part of the country can claim to be safe from the menance and insecurity caused by terrorists, armed robbers, human traffickers, kidnappers of all sorts, cattle rustlers, insurgents, bandits and herders/farmers conflicts".

 Similarly, the UK  All -Party Parliamentary Group for International Freedom of Religion or Belief has just published a report entitled 'Nigeria-Unfolding Genocide'  accusing the Federal government of inaction in protecting Christians and Ethnic minorities in Nigeria. It's a big badge of shame the country finds itself  in this situation.

 This government dramatically demonstrate how anti-democratic elements that achieve power democratically can destroy the very democracy that empowered them. Under this government, the country has fulfilled all the requirements of state failure-lawlessness, failed elections, abuse of power and attack on civil liberties, tyranny, eroding democratic institutions and checks and balances including the judiciary, collapsed economy, endangered society, this is a very bad omen and mockery of democracy.

 In another report, Ewelina U Ochab, writing for Forbes Magazine, reported that "Fulani militia continues to perpetrate mass atrocities in Nigeria's Middle-Belt and their crimes continue to go unreported. How will the Nigerian government explain the mass killings in Nigeria as recorded by several International organisations? What is the Nigerian government doing to ensure that the acts are investigated and the perpetrators prosecuted". 

A government that has refused to call the enemy by its name cannot hide from history. What is the point of democracy if it cannot guarantee citizens security and prosperity. Dr Nina Nwodo described the political parties as 'companies owned by share holders'. "Our political parties are like companies owned by shareholders where there is no freedom to choose candidates, no transparency in nomination process. you need to have a god father to win a nomination to enter any legislative houses or executive office. Our electoral system is the most corrupt in the world. This is the only country in the world where you go for an election and the adjudication of the judiciary on the outcome of an election lasts up to one year. And in the process, our judiciary is corrupt. In the process, our police men break into a polling booth and cart away polling bags and papers in broad day light. It is recorded in cameras and nobody does anything about it. 

It is very often noticed in Nigeria that people lose election and still win because their names are recorded as having won. The confidence of an average Nigerian in the electoral process is gone, to make matters worst and that is the kernel point". 

*The People-Ignorant and Impotent Majority persuaded by identity and propaganda: Freedom is not freely given by the oppressors, freedom is taken. There is a popular saying; "Your rights will not be handed to you. You're going to have to request them by going out into the streets". There is Power in Protest. Pressure works. Again, in the words of Professor Paul Collier; Our politicians would only move beyond gestures once there is a critical mass of informed citizens". 

Education is the only solution to the dilemma of democracy, all the philosophers say so and we are all stakeholders in this regard. This blog is an attempt to raise awareness to help inform and inspire people to demand change from the 'few'-wielding immeasurable wealth and power to deepen the mess we're in. At stake is whether, there will be democracy in the near future. There are several suggestions out there about the future of government in Nigeria, however, there is nothing to suggest that the government would let the peoples' voice count. 

I think It's very imperative to conclude this little piece with Professor Wole Soyinka's final conclusion on the state of democracy in Nigeria; "Nigeria is now witnessing an illusive democracy hoisted by the tyrannical regime of President Buhari. The government is worst than any military junta we have ever seen in this country. It's high time progressive Nigerians rise up and vehemently resist this despotic and macabre government. The Ekiti and Osun jungle elections are a good pointer.

 Nigeria belongs to all of us and we must protect this country and our democracy"

 Democracy requires Committed Democrats,  People of Expertise and experience and Educated Educated Electorate. Civic and Moral Education is very important for the health of democracy and The LEAD Project Foundation is actively involved in this regard.

Uche Okeke is the Founder of The LEAD Project Foundation. He lives in London.