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Sunday 2 July 2023

Nigeria's 2023 election eroded voters' trust, says EU observers

 

"In the lead-up to the 2023 general elections, Nigerian citizens demonstrated a clear commitment to the democratic process. That said, the election exposed enduring systemic weaknesses and therefore signal a need for further legal and operational reforms to enhance transparency, inclusiveness, and accountability"-said Chief Observer Barry Andrews, Member of the European Parliament. Photo: Google.

The European Union Observers who monitored Nigeria's 2023 elections  have confirmed what we all know. According to the findings of EU-EOM observers, election day was marked by late deployment and opening while polling procedures were not always followed. Polling staff struggled to complete result forms, which were not posted publicly in most polling units observed. The introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV) were perceived as an important step to ensure the integrity and credibility of the elections. However, uploading of the results using the BVAS did not work as expected and presidential election result forms started to appear on the portal very late on election day, raising concerns. 

The EU-EOM concluded that "shortcomings in law and electoral administration hindered the conduct of well-run and inclusive elections and damaged trust in INEC". The EU-EOM is offering 23 recommendations for consideration by the Nigerian authorities

 Click on this link to read the full report: EU-EOM Nigeria 2023Final Report 

Wednesday 21 June 2023

How Nigeria's 2023 Presidential Election was stolen




A number of studies have shown the many ways in which electoral fraud is perpetrated in  Nigeria, however the February 25, 2023 Presidential election has generated a lot of  keen interests. Data analysis from various sources- newspaper reports, election observers reports, interviews, etc, seeks to help tell the story better. 

Read more (soon) as we look into the activities of various stakeholders -  the ruling party, the ruling party controlled Legislature, the Governors, Candidates, Supporters, INEC and their officials, Election Logistics Management, Security agencies, the Judiciary, the Media, other Internal and External factors.


LP to challenge Results in 18 States 

Nigeria's 2023 Presidential Election was stolen given abundant evidence


 "Documents show how INEC blurred and mutilated additional 2.5 million votes in  18,088 Polling Units against Peter Obi", says Professor Eric Ofoedu, Professor of Mathematics at the Nnamdi Azikiwe University...., "No technical glitches on Websites in Continent", Amazon staff tells Nigeria's  Presidential Election Court    Photo: Facebook.

We have been following events about the last February 25, 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria and have come to the conclusion that the election was stolen having met all the criteria for a stolen election. The Presidential election was the most highly anticipated election in Nigeria's history but the drama playing out so far is a huge global embarrassment. 

The ruling party engineered a fraudulent election in connivance with 'corrupt, out of control and dangerous' INEC. The ruling party had 'the arrogant power' and they used it. Declaring the wrong candidate as the winner is a grave injustice given overwhelming evidence at the presidential election court. 

The Judiciary should right the wrong and declare Peter Obi of the Labour Party as the rightful winner of that presidential election or initiate a re-run election. Allowing the stolen election to stand will create a 'stench' that will hunt the country for a very long time. Peter Obi should take back what is rightly his, this is Nigeria Judiciary's toughest test.

 In the words of Peter Obi, "the judiciary is part of the democratic enterprise and a critical governance tool for determining the propriety of the decisions and actions of every citizen and every institution of the state..., We expect that the Judiciary will use the election cases now before it to reaffirm it's independence and integrity. It has to do so, for all our sakes and for itself" 

The Labour Party's Legal Representatives have accused the so called INEC of deliberately frustrating the court proceedings by declining to provide them with essential electoral documents to conclude their case in a 'time bound' proceedings, this demands immediate court intervention and actions. 

25 February 2023, was probably the darkest day in Nigeria's election history, the judiciary should rise up to the occasion to do what the whole world is expecting them to do-'deliver the right justice! Declaring election losers as winners is a recipe for disaster especially in ethnic diverse society like Nigeria where the pull of ethnic identity is greater than the national identity. 

Election sabotage by election officials resulting to an election loser being declared the winner should be treated as state terrorism which requires strong penalty. The electoral laws must be strengthened to deter 'election subversion' and making stolen elections easier in Nigeria. "The time to act is now"

Uche Okeke, My View. 


Thursday 1 June 2023

Nigeria's electoral system is flawed, structured to fail

"Electoral process in Nigeria is still wobbling. With manual voting we have a problem, electronic, we have a problem, where is the problem coming from?..., INEC has to sit up so that they will not throw this country into conflagration one day"-Dr. Goodluck Jonathan , Nigeria's Ex-President. Photo: Google.

Our blog post on Nigeria's illusive democracy was simply to raise awareness of  the state of democracy in Nigeria despite acquiring democratic institutions, due to 'traps' of inherited authoritarian political system. The quality of democracy and the quality of elections in particular, still fall short of good standards and there is nothing to suggest it will change overnight, unless the political system is overhauled. The dysfunctional political system was structured to serve vested interests especially the incumbent and the ruling party, 'preserving the incumbent's grip' on power through the widespread use of fraud and intimidation; win at all costs for the incumbent's sake. Perhaps, the only exception was former President Goodluck Jonathan and we all know the reason. Flawed political system produces flawed electoral system, that's the whole point unless something is done about it.

 The last February 2023 presidential elections is a constant reminder of the sad reality of the trap and the urgent need to do something about it. The time to act is now. International election observers declared, "there was no election to observe , rather they witnessed a crime scene"

 Restructuring the country and overhauling the dictatorship era constitution is one sure way to guarantee prospects of credible and transparent, free and fair elections that will reflect the genuine will of the people, not routine flawed elections every four years . The monstrous political system is the root of the crisis , everything depends on it. It still tilts towards authoritarian regimes whose leaders do not enjoy 'legitimate authority and instead' rule through 'fear and terror' . 

Of course, electoral outcome of a flawed system is electoral disaster. How else can we describe abominable scenes at the last presidential election in Nigeria, where the electoral management body and the security agencies turned blind eye to irregularities and electoral malpractices. According to Mr Julius Abure, Nigeria Labour Party National chairman; "votes lawfully cast for the labour party candidate were changed and reduced and added to increase votes casted for the presidential candidate of the ruling APC party..., after counting of votes, a dark cloud engulfed the nation. It became clear that the correct password to transmit the presidential election results electronically and instantly from the BVAS to the INEC IREV had been criminally withheld, contrary to specifications of the law and contrary to repeated emphasis, directives and promises to the nation and it's citizens by Professor Mahmood Yakubu and INEC officials"

Today , all eyes are on the judiciary for election 
'dispute and resolution', which ought to have taken place before official announcement of election results, but the judiciary is dependent on the monstrous system which has already installed a president without resolving the election dispute. 

In the words of Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party Presidential candidate widely believed to be the winner of the 25 February 2023 Presidential elections in Nigeria , "We stand at that critical moment in time when as a people, we must collectively come to grips with the reality of our injured destiny as well as the reasons for that injury"

Indeed, the time has come to restructure the country and reform 'out of date institutions and practices' that do not match the needs of the 21st century. This requires public education and awareness to put pressure on the power holders to do the right thing. Pressure works.  

 Ebenezer Obadare said , "The Nigerian State is the greatest threat to Nigerian Democracy", Ofcourse , this does not require further evidence.

Uche Okeke , My view .




 

Monday 29 May 2023

Electoral farce- things keep getting worse for African Colossus By Natale Labia

"Essentially, Nigeria is at risk of falling apart. Africa and the world needs a Nigeria that works for it's voters and youths. If managed well, it remains a country with enormous potential and resources. Sadly, it is unlikely that this recent farce of an election will provide that the world will be forced to take notice when Nigeria collapses"- Natale Labia, Partner and Chief economist of a global investment firm. Photo: Google .

Nigeria matters. While it is unlikely that much of the world paid attention to the results of its presidential election last week, it should have. Nigeria is Africa's largest country and largest democracy. With a population of 216 million, almost one in five Africans is Nigerian, and most of them are underage of 30. It is also growing extraordinarily fast; according to the UN, at current rates Nigeria will overtake the US to be the world's third-largest country by 2050 and China by 2100. 

However, even for a country with a history of quasi-omnipresent disorder, Nigeria faces an unprecedented set of challenges. Inflation is at a record 22% and at least one in three Nigerians is jobless. Despite the fast-growing population, there has been an almost complete absence of economic growth for a decade, resulting in millions of Nigerians abandoning their homeland. 

 Although blessed with abundant oil and gas reserves, Nigeria endures constant power outages and fuel shortages. Insecurity and crime are rife, and there are atleast two major Islamist insurgencies in the north, a separatist conflict in the southeast and several sectarian disputes across the country. Kidnapping is rife.

Finally, a botched attempt to replace high-domination currency notes less than a month before the general election descended into chaos, with long lines of  people forming outside cash machines and fights breaking out inside banks as customers demanded access to their own money. 

Essentially, Nigeria is at risk of falling apart. More immediately, though, are the questions of the election itself. what Nigeria needed above all was a transparent and fair contest to ensure the basic promise of democracy is alive and well. Sadly, that is far from what transpired. Ostensibly won by the former governor and self-styled godfather of Lagos, the wealthy political manoeuvering Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress, the election was, at the very least, badly mismanaged. Opposition parties have declared it a sham. 

Nigeria's Independent National Election Commission clearly failed to deliver. Voting on a new electronic ballot system started late in many districts, depriving millions of the right to vote. The system uploading results then failed, raising suspicions of tampering, while there are widespread reports of intimidation in polling stations. Turnout was pitifully low, at 27%, which the opposition maintains was due to fear. 

It was not meant to happen like this. After serving his maximum of two terms, former president Muhammadu Buhari stated he was stepping down to make way for a fresh face at the helm of this West African colossus, and for the first time in Nigeria's fourth republi, there was a third entrant.
Challenging the ageing and allegedly corrupt Tinubu and equally antediluvian Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party was an exciting new contestant; Peter Obi and his Labour Party.

Backed by many of Nigeria's urban and educated middle class, especially among the young, he had been tipped as the first serious challenger to the gerontocracy that has ruled the country since the 1998 demise of Sani Abacha's military junta. With Obi leading in the polls propir to the election, commentators called this the first genuine opportunity of a fresh start for Nigeria in decades.

Obi, who had based his campaign on mobilising younger voters disenchanted with the out-of -touch political elite, told reporters at a press conference on thursday that his Labour Party would explore all "legal and peaceful options to reclaim our mandate. We won the election and we'll prove it to Nigerians"
Second-placed Abubakar has also called for a re-run. A prolonged dispute risks tipping an already precarious status-quo into anarchy.

Even if the result stands and somehow reflects the broader will of the people, Tinubu faces one of the toughest jobs imaginable. First, he will need to stabilise the economy. Then, major reforms to the police and military are needed to reinstate security across the country, especially in those areas threatened by insurgencies and seccession. The toxic confluence of problems besetting Nigeria has not only been a handbrake on African economic growth, but it has destabilised the region and caused mass humanitarian and immigration crisis as far away as Europe and South Africa.

Africa, and the world, needs a Nigeria that works for its voters and youth. If managed well, it remains a country with enormous potential and resources. Sadly, it is unlikely that this recent farce of an election will provide that.

Source:  Daily Maverick

 

Thursday 25 May 2023

Stolen Elections in Nigeria, What can Be Done About It


 

"We are accountable to the people of this country and the people have accepted the BVAS as a game changer in our electoral process"- Festus Okoye, Nigeria INEC Commissioner for Information and Voter Education. Photo: Google Images.

The 2023 Presidential Election in Nigeria has generated a lot of controversy-'election fraud' . Millions of Nigerians especially young people who saw the 25 February 2023 Presidential election as an opportunity to reclaim the country from corruption ridden aged- oligarchs  who have brought the country to its knees, now believe that votes don't count  and seem to  have lost faith in the integrity of elections in Nigeria. They are simply looking up to the judiciary with the expectations that the right justice will be delivered. As it stands, nobody can predict the next possible move as the Presidential transition council concludes the inauguration of the new President-elect on the 29th of May 2023. 

According to Christina Bobb; "The country has become ever-more polarised, pitting those who believe the election was stolen versus those who are determined to cancel both the investigations and the doubters. But election integrity should not be a partisan issue. Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our republic while tainted elections are the hallmark of tyranny. If we fail to regain election integrity and the trust of American people, all of us, Democrat and Republican, liberal and conservative, are doomed to a dark  future"

Read The LEAD Project Foundation blog regularly as we follow events about the Presidential Election Tribunal in Nigeria to understand what truly happened in the 25 February 2023 Presidential elections and publish our findings  on what can be done to improve future elections. Also visit Election Rogues Gallery as we intend to identify convicted election offenders in Nigeria, individuals and organisations on global sanction lists. 

Uche Okeke is the Founder of The LEAD Project Foundation. He lives in London. 

Who Really Won The Presidential Election? by Emeka Ugwuonye

 

"The election was rigged with the connivance of INEC. What happened in the presidential election was not credible enough for me to objectively assess who won the election. My honest personal opinion is that either INEC would follow the law and properly count the votes or the election should be redone"-Emeka Ugwuonye ; Founder , Due Process Advocates (DPA). Photo: Google Images.

If I announce here that I'm on my way to Abuja, my detractors will shout. He is going to cheer Asiwaju on his inauguration. Well, I have a different mission. My views on the election and inauguration are pragmatic, I have to live in peace with things I can't change. And that is my advice to all. Otherwise, you live a life based on wishes.

 Since my critical analysis of the situation surrounding the presidential elections and the seemingly inevitability of Tinubu's inauguration , one important question people have asked me has been: who won the election? My answer to this question has been: "I don't know. The reason I do not know who the winner of the election is because INEC did not conduct a fair and free election, which could produce the result you are asking me for. The election was rigged with the connivance of INEC. What happened in the presidential election was not credible enough for me to objectively assess who won the election. My honest personal opinion is that either INEC would follow the law and properly count the votes or the election should be redone. 

What I wish has not happened, instead, INEC gave us a result and told us to go with it. That is not consistent with what I want or what I consider fair. The options are: (1) to enter the street and protest or (2) to stop INEC through the courts. This is where the reality sets in. I will not ask anyone to enter the streets because I have an idea what will happen. Secondly, I do not have confidence in the Nigeria judiciary to stop an incumbent president. Our judiciary is not independent enough for that. It can happen at the state level. Our courts have a number of times in the past removed an incumbent governor who got into the office through rigging. But our court has never done that with respect to presidential elections. I knew for certain that late President Yar'Adua did not win his election. I knew how the incumbent bought the courts to declare that a rigged election was not rigged.  

The reality I kept hammering at is the fact that the situation in Nigeria today does not allow either  of the two options I mentioned above. Nigeria remains a country where the DSS arrested 7 senior judges in the middle of the night, and nothing happened. If judges could be arrested without consequence, how could you ever expect the courts to decide against a sitting president as to his right to remain in office or obligation to vacate. 

Does this mean I am saying that we should allow a rigged election to hold? No, I am only saying that you can only do what is feasible. You cannot pursue an impossibility just because you feel you must try something. Besides, I believe that Nigeria has continued to make progress, though at a snail pace, and with progress, the next election will be better than the last because the people have learnt from the past.

Anyway, just watch out to see if the Government will declare tomorrow a public holiday. Whether they do or not. I am sceptical about what the courts can do. Tomorrow is the last chance for the judiciary to make to stop the inauguration of Tinubu. After tomorrow, you must learn to live with it.



The LEAD Project Foundation