Electoral farce- things keep getting worse for African Colossus By Natale Labia

"Essentially, Nigeria is at risk of falling apart. Africa and the world needs a Nigeria that works for it's voters and youths. If managed well, it remains a country with enormous potential and resources. Sadly, it is unlikely that this recent farce of an election will provide that the world will be forced to take notice when Nigeria collapses"- Natale Labia, Partner and Chief economist of a global investment firm. Photo: Google .

Nigeria matters. While it is unlikely that much of the world paid attention to the results of its presidential election last week, it should have. Nigeria is Africa's largest country and largest democracy. With a population of 216 million, almost one in five Africans is Nigerian, and most of them are underage of 30. It is also growing extraordinarily fast; according to the UN, at current rates Nigeria will overtake the US to be the world's third-largest country by 2050 and China by 2100. 

However, even for a country with a history of quasi-omnipresent disorder, Nigeria faces an unprecedented set of challenges. Inflation is at a record 22% and at least one in three Nigerians is jobless. Despite the fast-growing population, there has been an almost complete absence of economic growth for a decade, resulting in millions of Nigerians abandoning their homeland. 

 Although blessed with abundant oil and gas reserves, Nigeria endures constant power outages and fuel shortages. Insecurity and crime are rife, and there are atleast two major Islamist insurgencies in the north, a separatist conflict in the southeast and several sectarian disputes across the country. Kidnapping is rife.

Finally, a botched attempt to replace high-domination currency notes less than a month before the general election descended into chaos, with long lines of  people forming outside cash machines and fights breaking out inside banks as customers demanded access to their own money. 

Essentially, Nigeria is at risk of falling apart. More immediately, though, are the questions of the election itself. what Nigeria needed above all was a transparent and fair contest to ensure the basic promise of democracy is alive and well. Sadly, that is far from what transpired. Ostensibly won by the former governor and self-styled godfather of Lagos, the wealthy political manoeuvering Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressive Congress, the election was, at the very least, badly mismanaged. Opposition parties have declared it a sham. 

Nigeria's Independent National Election Commission clearly failed to deliver. Voting on a new electronic ballot system started late in many districts, depriving millions of the right to vote. The system uploading results then failed, raising suspicions of tampering, while there are widespread reports of intimidation in polling stations. Turnout was pitifully low, at 27%, which the opposition maintains was due to fear. 

It was not meant to happen like this. After serving his maximum of two terms, former president Muhammadu Buhari stated he was stepping down to make way for a fresh face at the helm of this West African colossus, and for the first time in Nigeria's fourth republi, there was a third entrant.

Challenging the ageing and allegedly corrupt Tinubu and equally antediluvian Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party was an exciting new contestant; Peter Obi and his Labour Party.

Backed by many of Nigeria's urban and educated middle class, especially among the young, he had been tipped as the first serious challenger to the gerontocracy that has ruled the country since the 1998 demise of Sani Abacha's military junta. With Obi leading in the polls propir to the election, commentators called this the first genuine opportunity of a fresh start for Nigeria in decades.

Obi, who had based his campaign on mobilising younger voters disenchanted with the out-of -touch political elite, told reporters at a press conference on thursday that his Labour Party would explore all "legal and peaceful options to reclaim our mandate. We won the election and we'll prove it to Nigerians"

Second-placed Abubakar has also called for a re-run. A prolonged dispute risks tipping an already precarious status-quo into anarchy.

Even if the result stands and somehow reflects the broader will of the people, Tinubu faces one of the toughest jobs imaginable. First, he will need to stabilise the economy. Then, major reforms to the police and military are needed to reinstate security across the country, especially in those areas threatened by insurgencies and seccession. The toxic confluence of problems besetting Nigeria has not only been a handbrake on African economic growth, but it has destabilised the region and caused mass humanitarian and immigration crisis as far away as Europe and South Africa.

Africa, and the world, needs a Nigeria that works for its voters and youth. If managed well, it remains a country with enormous potential and resources. Sadly, it is unlikely that this recent farce of an election will provide that.

Source:  Daily Maverick

 

Stolen Elections in Nigeria, What can Be Done About It

 

"We are accountable to the people of this country and the people have accepted the BVAS as a game changer in our electoral process"- Festus Okoye, Nigeria INEC Commissioner for Information and Voter Education. Photo: Google Images.

The 2023 Presidential Election in Nigeria has generated a lot of controversy-'election fraud' . Millions of Nigerians especially young people who saw the 25 February 2023 Presidential election as an opportunity to reclaim the country from corruption ridden aged- oligarchs  who have brought the country to its knees, now believe that votes don't count  and seem to  have lost faith in the integrity of elections in Nigeria. They are simply looking up to the judiciary with the expectations that the right justice will be delivered. As it stands, nobody can predict the next possible move as the Presidential transition council concludes the inauguration of the new President-elect on the 29th of May 2023. 

According to Christina Bobb; "The country has become ever-more polarised, pitting those who believe the election was stolen versus those who are determined to cancel both the investigations and the doubters. But election integrity should not be a partisan issue. Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our republic while tainted elections are the hallmark of tyranny. If we fail to regain election integrity and the trust of American people, all of us, Democrat and Republican, liberal and conservative, are doomed to a dark  future"

Read The LEAD Project Foundation blog regularly as we follow events about the Presidential Election Tribunal in Nigeria to understand what truly happened in the 25 February 2023 Presidential elections and publish our findings  on what can be done to improve future elections. Also visit Election Rogues Gallery as we intend to identify convicted election offenders in Nigeria, individuals and organisations on global sanction lists. 

Uche Okeke is the Founder of The LEAD Project Foundation. He lives in London. 

Who Really Won The Presidential Election? by Emeka Ugwuonye

 

"The election was rigged with the connivance of INEC. What happened in the presidential election was not credible enough for me to objectively assess who won the election. My honest personal opinion is that either INEC would follow the law and properly count the votes or the election should be redone"-Emeka Ugwuonye ; Founder , Due Process Advocates (DPA). Photo: Google Images.

If I announce here that I'm on my way to Abuja, my detractors will shout. He is going to cheer Asiwaju on his inauguration. Well, I have a different mission. My views on the election and inauguration are pragmatic, I have to live in peace with things I can't change. And that is my advice to all. Otherwise, you live a life based on wishes.

 Since my critical analysis of the situation surrounding the presidential elections and the seemingly inevitability of Tinubu's inauguration , one important question people have asked me has been: who won the election? My answer to this question has been: "I don't know. The reason I do not know who the winner of the election is because INEC did not conduct a fair and free election, which could produce the result you are asking me for. The election was rigged with the connivance of INEC. What happened in the presidential election was not credible enough for me to objectively assess who won the election. My honest personal opinion is that either INEC would follow the law and properly count the votes or the election should be redone. 

What I wish has not happened, instead, INEC gave us a result and told us to go with it. That is not consistent with what I want or what I consider fair. The options are: (1) to enter the street and protest or (2) to stop INEC through the courts. This is where the reality sets in. I will not ask anyone to enter the streets because I have an idea what will happen. Secondly, I do not have confidence in the Nigeria judiciary to stop an incumbent president. Our judiciary is not independent enough for that. It can happen at the state level. Our courts have a number of times in the past removed an incumbent governor who got into the office through rigging. But our court has never done that with respect to presidential elections. I knew for certain that late President Yar'Adua did not win his election. I knew how the incumbent bought the courts to declare that a rigged election was not rigged.  

The reality I kept hammering at is the fact that the situation in Nigeria today does not allow either  of the two options I mentioned above. Nigeria remains a country where the DSS arrested 7 senior judges in the middle of the night, and nothing happened. If judges could be arrested without consequence, how could you ever expect the courts to decide against a sitting president as to his right to remain in office or obligation to vacate. 

Does this mean I am saying that we should allow a rigged election to hold? No, I am only saying that you can only do what is feasible. You cannot pursue an impossibility just because you feel you must try something. Besides, I believe that Nigeria has continued to make progress, though at a snail pace, and with progress, the next election will be better than the last because the people have learnt from the past.

Anyway, just watch out to see if the Government will declare tomorrow a public holiday. Whether they do or not. I am sceptical about what the courts can do. Tomorrow is the last chance for the judiciary to make to stop the inauguration of Tinubu. After tomorrow, you must learn to live with it.

Was the 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election Stolen?

 

Protesters vowed to shut down the country over what they described as daylight robbery by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in connivance with the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC ) to subvert the will of Nigerians in the just concluded 25 February 2023 Presidential Election. Photo: Sahara Reporters.

Elections in Nigeria have been very controversial since independence, however the 2023 Presidential Election widely expected to be a game changer due to electoral reforms allowing the use of electronic voting turned out to be a huge disappointment with allegations of fraud by the leading opposition candidates who have refused to concede but have approached the election tribunal seeking to nullify the outcome of the presidential elections. 

Today , there is widespread belief that 'future elections will not be conducted fairly and that the candidates taking office will not reflect the free choices made by eligible voters'.   Stolen elections mock democracy and development and creates the conditions for conflict and instability especially in fragile democracies. There are a lot of reasons to worry about stolen elections.  The 25  February 2023 Nigeria Presidential Election is a wake up call to do something about it.

What Constitutes a "stolen election"?

How can we spot a stolen election?

What are the consequences of a stolen election?

What can be done about it .

According to Dan Mclaughlin;  "in terms of evidence, there are three signs to look for that might show that an election's outcome was the result of fraud by voters or election officials" 

These include:

 1) Direct evidence of illegally counted or discounted votes.

2)Evidence of an unlawful process.

3) Anomalous results that make sense only if the election was fraudulent.

Perhaps, this could be a good place to start as we strive to help communicate what works so that we can have a democracy that works for everyone. Everyone wins if we can help maintain a just and free society. In the words of Steven F. Freeman and Joel Bleifuss; "Elections needed to convey a sense of fairness and finality if the fledging democracy was to survive,...and when we have a reason to doubt, when officials operate secretly under colour of law or behind the veil of untested technologies, when the results of a national election cannot be trusted to reflect the ballots cast, no obligation could be greater than that of a citizen to question the electoral process itself" . 

There is a saying that , "the people know a rotten sardine when they smell one"

The events of 25 February 2023 Presidential elections gave us such reason to doubt. 

Uche Okeke.